Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
DataSnack's model puts this at 23% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 22%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Anthropic's range reprices AI ambition, and anchors decide where day one lands
The debut tests whether public markets still pay for AI growth against $895 billion of committed spending. The model's case rests on the valuation-rising and on-track readings, and its 34% for the bracket is below the market's 39%.}
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 22% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 23%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2028
- How it resolves: This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 57 days: off by 2.8 points against 3.9 points for standing still; closer on 35 of 57 days
- Fitted on 150 days of history
How the model works
This bracket's chance drifts with how the valuation story reads: price pushes toward $1.5-1.6T, coverage of cuts and delays, and the IPO timing read from the on-track reading and the sister market's no-IPO weight.
- Each full point the valuation-rising reading climbs shifts this bracket's log-odds by -0.606 in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected -0.555 in log-odds; the data say -0.606 in log-odds ± 0.33. Fits past data roughly.
- Each full point the valuation-cut reading climbs shifts this bracket's log-odds by -0.314 in log-odds. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- Each full point the IPO on-track reading climbs shifts this bracket's log-odds by -0.42 in log-odds. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- Each unit rise in the chance of no IPO before 2028 moves this bracket's log-odds by -0.184 in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected -0.17 in log-odds; the data say -0.184 in log-odds ± 0.1, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Anthropic IPO valuation rising (reading): 0.0333 score on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: stories say the Anthropic IPO valuation is being cut: 0.75 score on 10 Nov 2026
- Anthropic IPO on-track reading: 0.311 score on 10 Nov 2026
- In which month will Anthropic IPO? · No IPO before 2028: 1% on 10 Nov 2026
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap · $1.5–$1.75T: 22% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 18%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 26%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 27%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 28%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 34%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 27%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 23% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 22%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:a5943309e256 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 12:12 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.