# Where will Wholesale gasoline future be in seven days?

Where will Wholesale gasoline future be in seven days? DataSnack's model says $2.61/gal (11 Nov 2026); it is $2.65/gal now. It has no graded forecasts yet.

## DataSnack's read

**Red Sea risk premium is a thin reed for pricing wholesale gasoline**

Wholesale gasoline feeds pump prices and refiner margins, so a wrong supply-risk story misleads. The model's case rests on closure odds: 15¢ a day off over 60 days against 14¢ for no change, and a 79¢ miss on 2026-11-02.

## The numbers

- Wholesale gasoline future now: $2.65/gal
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: $2.61/gal
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 15¢ against 14¢ for standing still; closer on 26 of 60 days
- Fitted on 246 days of history

## How the model works

Wholesale gasoline starts from its latest close. Rising odds of a Red Sea chokepoint closure add a supply-risk premium.

- Each rise in the market's chance of a Bab el-Mandeb closure moves wholesale gasoline by 2.95 over the following week. DataSnack's author expected 0.15; the data say 2.95 ± 1.3. Fits past data roughly.

## Fed by

- [Bab el-Mandeb closure chance in a week](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:3dcb42fed129) (its number now): Each rise in the market's chance of a Bab el-Mandeb closure moves wholesale gasoline by 2.95 over the following week. DataSnack's author expected 0.15; the data say 2.95 ± 1.3. Fits past data roughly.

## Sources

- Wholesale gasoline (RBOB) front-month future close (Yahoo Finance): $2.65/gal on 9 Nov 2026
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? · December 31: 8% on 11 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet.

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says $2.61/gal seven days from now.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

**Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet?** Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:a633de771fd5.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:a633de771fd5 · Updated 11 Nov 2026 05:22 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.