Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
DataSnack's model puts this at 40% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 42%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A single scheduled date makes shutdown odds swing on headlines, then settle
A lapse in appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12 would hit federal operations and contractors. The model's case rests on 3-day moves partly reversing over 37 days, pointing to 32% in a week; replay error was 2.9 points versus 3.5.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 42% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 40%
- The market closes: 12 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 34 days: off by 2.9 points against 3.5 points for standing still; closer on 18 of 34 days
- Fitted on 42 days of history
How the model works
Over the last 37 days, the market's 3-day moves have partly reversed in the following week. The model starts from today's chance and applies that pull back. Nothing decays, because the question depends on one scheduled day.
- Recent moves in the market tend to partly reverse over the next week, at about -0.482 in log-odds of the 3-day move. DataSnack's author expected -0.5 in log-odds; the data say -0.482 in log-odds ± 0.25, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.
Sources
- Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026? · Yes: 42% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 32%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 34%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 34%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 34%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 33%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 37%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 40% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 42%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:a693e126ca57 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:21 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.