# Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?

DataSnack's model puts this at 40% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 42%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**A single scheduled date makes shutdown odds swing on headlines, then settle**

A lapse in appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12 would hit federal operations and contractors. The model's case rests on 3-day moves partly reversing over 37 days, pointing to 32% in a week; replay error was 2.9 points versus 3.5.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 42% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovtshutdown))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 40%
- The market closes: 12 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 34 days: off by 2.9 points against 3.5 points for standing still; closer on 18 of 34 days
- Fitted on 42 days of history

## How the model works

Over the last 37 days, the market's 3-day moves have partly reversed in the following week. The model starts from today's chance and applies that pull back. Nothing decays, because the question depends on one scheduled day.

- Recent moves in the market tend to partly reverse over the next week, at about -0.482 in log-odds of the 3-day move. DataSnack's author expected -0.5 in log-odds; the data say -0.482 in log-odds ± 0.25, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.

## Sources

- Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026? · Yes: 42% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 32%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 34%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 34%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 34%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 33%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 37%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 40% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 42%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:a693e126ca57 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:21 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.