Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?
DataSnack's model puts this at 100% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 100%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Abu Dhabi is a neutral broker's venue, not a sign that a deal is near
The venue matters as a gauge of whether diplomacy is real, while Putin rejects a general ceasefire. The model's case rests on holding the current chance, 91% in seven days, since its momentum link adds almost nothing.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 100% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 100%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2028
- How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict begins by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 21 days: off by 15.6 points against 15.6 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 21 days
- Fitted on 31 days of history
How the model works
Nothing is ranked because the market is too new to measure, so the model keeps the current chance and lets a reader add or remove momentum from its own recent move.
- About 0 in log-odds of the market's own recent move in log-odds carries on over the next week. DataSnack's author expected 0 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.57, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place? · UAE: 100% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 91%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 95%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 97%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 100%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 100% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 100%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:a9146fdf6f3c · Updated 8 Nov 2026 04:09 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.