Next CEO of NVIDIA?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 28%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

NVIDIA's succession rests on one founder's timing, not on who is best placed

The leadership of the AI hardware chain sits behind one founder, so any succession signal reaches suppliers and customers. The model's case rests on Ian Buck easing to 29% in seven days as the window shrinks, absent transition news.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 28% (the market)
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• The market closes: 1 Jan 2029
• How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the successor to Jensen Huang as CEO of NVIDIA Corporation by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of NVIDIA. Interim CEOs will not qualify. If no successor is announced by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Jensen Huang (No Change)”. The resolution source will be public statements from NVIDIA Corporation, however a consensus of cre…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.

How the model works

Ian Buck's chance of being named successor by the end of 2028 decays slowly as the window to the deadline shrinks, absent news of a CEO transition.

• With no announcement this week, the chance of a successor named by the deadline shrinks at 1 of the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

Sources

• Next CEO of NVIDIA? · Ian Buck: 28% on 13 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 13 Nov 2026 for 20 Nov 2026: 28%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 28%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:aadf16183186.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:aadf16183186 · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.