# Next CEO of NVIDIA?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 28%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**NVIDIA's succession rests on one founder's timing, not on who is best placed**

The leadership of the AI hardware chain sits behind one founder, so any succession signal reaches suppliers and customers. The model's case rests on Ian Buck easing to 29% in seven days as the window shrinks, absent transition news.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 28% ([the market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-ceo-of-nvidia))
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2029
- How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the successor to Jensen Huang as CEO of NVIDIA Corporation by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of NVIDIA. Interim CEOs will not qualify. If no successor is announced by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Jensen Huang (No Change)”. The resolution source will be public statements from NVIDIA Corporation, however a consensus of cre…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.

## How the model works

Ian Buck's chance of being named successor by the end of 2028 decays slowly as the window to the deadline shrinks, absent news of a CEO transition.

- With no announcement this week, the chance of a successor named by the deadline shrinks at 1 of the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

## Sources

- Next CEO of NVIDIA? · Ian Buck: 28% on 13 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 13 Nov 2026 for 20 Nov 2026: 28%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Polymarket) is 28%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

**Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet?** Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:aadf16183186.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:aadf16183186 · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.