Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
DataSnack's model puts this at 2% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 3%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A frozen blockade standoff leaves the regime's fall window to simply expire
A 3% chance of a fall shows how little the market sees in a stalemate where each side waits for the other to move on the blockade. The model's case rests on the shrinking window to year end; it says 2% in seven days.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 3% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 2%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. T…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 36 days: off by 0.9 points against 1.0 points for standing still; closer on 18 of 36 days
- Fitted on 334 days of history
How the model works
With no event, the chance of a regime fall by year end shrinks as the window shortens. On top of that decay, a move in the market's chance that the US-Iran ceasefire holds nudges the number, as the scan found it leads the next week's move.
- With no event this week, the chance of a fall by year end shrinks as the window closes, at about 2 of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 2. A rough rule.
- Each unit rise in the chance the US-Iran ceasefire continues moves the market's log-odds by about 0 in log-odds, beyond the decay. DataSnack's author expected -0.168 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.1, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes: 3% on 11 Nov 2026
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? · October 31: 100% on 11 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 3%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 3%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 2%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 2% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 3%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:ad6f8672c671.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:ad6f8672c671 · Updated 8 Nov 2026 05:12 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.