Iran leadership change by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 22% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 23%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Iran's leadership risk is tied to a blockade neither side will lift first
A leadership change in Tehran would reorder Hormuz and Gulf security, so the 22% by June 30, 2027 matters beyond this market. The model's case rests on time decay plus the 67.5% chance of a US blockade end by March 31.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 23% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 22%
- The market closes: 1 Jul 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of w…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 38 days: off by 2.2 points against 2.2 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 38 days
- Fitted on 126 days of history
How the model works
With no leadership change this week, the chance of a change by the June 2027 close decays as the window shortens. On top of that, the market's chance that the US ends its blockade, which tracks how the ceasefire talks are going, moves it the opposite way: progress lowers it, stalls raise it.
- With no leadership change this week, the chance shrinks as the window shrinks, at about 0 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.
- Each move in the chance that the US announces an end to the blockade by March 31 shifts the leadership-change chance by about 0 in log-odds in log-odds, with talks progress pulling it down. DataSnack's author expected -0.2 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.41, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Iran leadership change by...? · June 30, 2027: 23% on 10 Nov 2026
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? · March 31: 68% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 24%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 23%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 21%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 22%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 22%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 22%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 22% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 23%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:b097a9270e28 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:35 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.