Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
DataSnack's model puts this at 20% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 20%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Disclosure is a process the US controls, and it has not crossed the legal line
The gap between open archives and a definitive statement is what the market prices at 21% by January 2029. The model's case rests on decay as the window shortens, and its 23% sits near a replay score of 1.9 points a day.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 20% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 20%
- The market closes: 20 Jan 2029
- How it resolves: If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.9 points against 1.9 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
- Fitted on 175 days of history
How the model works
The market's chance of an official alien confirmation before 2029 decays as the window shortens with no confirming statement. The scan shows its 14-day moves tend to partly reverse the following week, so a pull-back link sits on top of the decay.
- With no confirming statement this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 0 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.
- After a 14-day move in the market, about 0 in log-odds of that move in log-odds is reversed over the next week. DataSnack's author expected -0.236 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.3. A rough rule.
Sources
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? · Before Jan 20, 2029: 20% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 22%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 21%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 21%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 22%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 22%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 21%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 20% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 20%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:b0fc2b4362e3 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:25 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.