How many launches will SpaceX have in November?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Kalshi) is 7.84 number (7 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

November's launch count rests on Falcon 9's pace; Starship adds one at most

The count matters because SpaceX is winding down Falcon 9 and needs a reusable Starship for its 2027 cadence. The model's case rests on a steady Falcon 9 pace, with Flight 15, targeted for November 12, adding at most one launch.

The numbers

• The market's number (Kalshi) now: 7.84 number (the market)
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• The market closes: 1 Dec 2026
• How it resolves: If SpaceX has more than 6 launches in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Fitted on 6 days of history

How the model works

With no history to measure, the model holds the market's implied November launch count where it is, with a slider for momentum. The count mostly follows SpaceX's steady Falcon 9 pace, and Starship Flight 15 adds at most one launch if the FAA licence arrives.

• The implied November launch count tends to carry about 0 of its last week's move into next week, so with nothing new it stays near where it is. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

Sources

• How many launches will SpaceX have in November? (the market's number): 7.84 number on 11 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 8 number
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 8.06 number
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 8.02 number
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 8.03 number
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 8.06 number
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 8.12 number

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 7.84 number.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:b2bf47c486af.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:b2bf47c486af · Updated 7 Nov 2026 09:35 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.