# How many launches will SpaceX have in November?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Kalshi) is 7.84 number (7 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**November's launch count rests on Falcon 9's pace; Starship adds one at most**

The count matters because SpaceX is winding down Falcon 9 and needs a reusable Starship for its 2027 cadence. The model's case rests on a steady Falcon 9 pace, with Flight 15, targeted for November 12, adding at most one launch.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 7.84 number ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexcount))
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 1 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: If SpaceX has more than 6 launches in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Fitted on 6 days of history

## How the model works

With no history to measure, the model holds the market's implied November launch count where it is, with a slider for momentum. The count mostly follows SpaceX's steady Falcon 9 pace, and Starship Flight 15 adds at most one launch if the FAA licence arrives.

- The implied November launch count tends to carry about 0 of its last week's move into next week, so with nothing new it stays near where it is. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

## Sources

- How many launches will SpaceX have in November? (the market's number): 7.84 number on 11 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 8 number
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 8.06 number
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 8.02 number
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 8.03 number
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 8.06 number
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 8.12 number

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 7.84 number.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

**Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet?** Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:b2bf47c486af.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:b2bf47c486af · Updated 7 Nov 2026 09:35 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.