Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 100% seven days from now (7 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 100%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
The 5.2 launch has settled this question; the open one is the 5.5 successor
The release cadence and a possible IPO make the next Fable launch a signal for pricing pressure across frontier AI. The model's case rests on a hazard decay with 56 days left; adding a leak count scored 3.8 points a day against 3.7.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 100% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 100%
- The market closes: 31 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6,…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 52 days: off by 3.7 points against 3.7 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 52 days
- Fitted on 57 days of history
How the model works
The market is a by_date question at 95.4% with 56 days left. With no release this week, the chance drifts down as the window shrinks, so a hazard decay on the market's own number is the baseline. Leaks of Fable 5.5 and the IPO calendar support a near-term release, but nothing has been announced, so I add no input beyond the decay.
- With no release this week, the chance of a release by December 31 shrinks at about 0 times the pace of a constant hazard as the window closes. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? · December 31: 100% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 95%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 94%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 97%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 97%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 98%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 100%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 100% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 100%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:b80739cc0b89 · Updated 7 Nov 2026 05:40 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.