Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?

DataSnack's model puts this at 97% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 97%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Anthropic's IPO odds hinge on a short window, not on investor appetite

An Anthropic filing would set the benchmark for how public markets value frontier AI labs, and the other names sit at 8% or less. The model's case rests on the shrinking window to Jan 1, 2027, which puts the chance at 76% in seven days.

The numbers

• The market's number (Kalshi) now: 97% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 97%
• The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
• How it resolves: If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 6.8 points against 6.8 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
• Fitted on 349 days of history

How the model works

With no new announcement, the chance of an announcement by year end drifts as the remaining window shrinks. A hazard link on the market's own number captures this.

• With no announcement this week, the chance shrinks as the window to year end shortens, at 0 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.

Sources

• Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year? · Anthropic: 97% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 75%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 66%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 91%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 89%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 91%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 96%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 97% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 97%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:b9fd7b81f0e7 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.