# Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?

DataSnack's model puts this at 97% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 97%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Anthropic's IPO odds hinge on a short window, not on investor appetite**

An Anthropic filing would set the benchmark for how public markets value frontier AI labs, and the other names sit at 8% or less. The model's case rests on the shrinking window to Jan 1, 2027, which puts the chance at 76% in seven days.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 97% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipo))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 97%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 6.8 points against 6.8 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
- Fitted on 349 days of history

## How the model works

With no new announcement, the chance of an announcement by year end drifts as the remaining window shrinks. A hazard link on the market's own number captures this.

- With no announcement this week, the chance shrinks as the window to year end shortens, at 0 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.

## Sources

- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year? · Anthropic: 97% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 75%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 66%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 91%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 89%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 91%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 96%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 97% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 97%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:b9fd7b81f0e7 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.