Pete Hegseth impeached by...?
DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 89% (10 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Hegseth's fate sits with Trump, while the House decides only the charge
The impeachment chance matters because it tests how far Republicans will cross Trump and Speaker Johnson after the midterm loss. The model's case rests on decay alone, with 58% in seven days, and it has no input for the political push.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 89% (the market)
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary r…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 17 days: off by 9.5 points against 9.5 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 17 days
- Fitted on 22 days of history
How the model works
With no event this week, the chance of an impeachment vote by the close shrinks as the window shortens. The model applies that decay to the market's own number.
- With no impeachment vote this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 0 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Pete Hegseth impeached by...? · June 30, 2027: 89% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 59%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 59%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 67%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 80%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 76%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 89%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 89%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:bc0be250920f · Updated 10 Nov 2026 11:42 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.