2028 Republican presidential nominee

DataSnack's model puts this at 32% seven days from now (9 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 34%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Vance leads, but the midterm rout turns his administration role into a liability

The race tests whether the party keeps its Trump-aligned line after the midterm loss. The model's case rests on Vance's 34% holding, with 1.4 points of daily error in replay against 1.6 for assuming no change.

The numbers

• The market's number (Kalshi) now: 34% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 32%
• The market closes: 7 Nov 2028
• How it resolves: If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.4 points against 1.6 points for standing still; closer on 32 of 60 days
• Fitted on 393 days of history

How the model works

The market's number for Vance tends to follow the week's move in Vance's odds in the same race in a parallel market, which prices the same nomination race and absorbs news at a different pace.

• About 0.267 in log-odds of each week's move in Vance's odds in the other venue's market carries into this market a week later. DataSnack's author expected 0.37 in log-odds; the data say 0.267 in log-odds ± 0.098. A rough rule.

Sources

• Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance: 31% on 10 Nov 2026
• 2028 Republican presidential nominee · J.D. Vance: 34% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 34%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 32%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 32%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 32%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 32%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 32% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 34%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:bcd7ae1f6985 · Updated 9 Nov 2026 05:06 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.