# 2028 Republican presidential nominee

DataSnack's model puts this at 32% seven days from now (9 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 34%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Vance leads, but the midterm rout turns his administration role into a liability**

The race tests whether the party keeps its Trump-aligned line after the midterm loss. The model's case rests on Vance's 34% holding, with 1.4 points of daily error in replay against 1.6 for assuming no change.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 34% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomr))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 32%
- The market closes: 7 Nov 2028
- How it resolves: If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.4 points against 1.6 points for standing still; closer on 32 of 60 days
- Fitted on 393 days of history

## How the model works

The market's number for Vance tends to follow the week's move in Vance's odds in the same race in a parallel market, which prices the same nomination race and absorbs news at a different pace.

- About 0.267 in log-odds of each week's move in Vance's odds in the other venue's market carries into this market a week later. DataSnack's author expected 0.37 in log-odds; the data say 0.267 in log-odds ± 0.098. A rough rule.

## Sources

- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance: 31% on 10 Nov 2026
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee · J.D. Vance: 34% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 34%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 32%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 32%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 32%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 32%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 32% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 34%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:bcd7ae1f6985 · Updated 9 Nov 2026 05:06 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.