US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
DataSnack's model puts this at 13% seven days from now (9 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 14%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
The blockade, not the talks, sets the price of a final US-Iran deal
A final deal would end the blockade, the main lever both sides fight over, with Hormuz transits about 65% below pre-conflict. The model's case rests on a gentle decay as the year-end window shrinks, plus a pull from the blockade market.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 14% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 13%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 31 days: off by 1.3 points against 1.8 points for standing still; closer on 19 of 31 days
- Fitted on 129 days of history
How the model works
The final-deal chance decays gently as the window shrinks, then adjusts for the week's move in the market on ending the Iranian blockade, which the scan found moved opposite to it.
- As the window to year-end shrinks with no deal, the chance decays at about 2 unitless of a constant rate. DataSnack's author expected 0.5 unitless; the data say 2 unitless. A rough rule.
- When the chance of the blockade ending by Nov 30 moves up, the final-deal chance tends to move the other way, about -0.545 in log-odds of that move in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected -0.25 in log-odds; the data say -0.545 in log-odds ± 0.15, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.
Sources
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? · December 31: 14% on 10 Nov 2026
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? · November 30: 16% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 10%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 10%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 10%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 10%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 7%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 12%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 13% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 14%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:c03f76723da3 · Updated 9 Nov 2026 05:47 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.