Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
DataSnack's model puts this at 10% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 11%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Public AI stocks, not Anthropic's growth, now set the price of its IPO
The listing is read as a test of what investors pay for AI growth that still loses money. The model's case rests on the 1.8T+ chance and the no-IPO chance; it had no input for price cuts, and its 47% sits far above the 26% now.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 11% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 10%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2028
- How it resolves: This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 57 days: off by 5.9 points against 6.3 points for standing still; closer on 29 of 57 days
- Fitted on 186 days of history
How the model works
The 1.8T+ bracket starts from its own current chance, so with no news it stays put. It then shifts a little with moves in the market's chance that the IPO slips past 2027, which the scan found tracked this bracket's later moves.
- About 0.183 in log-odds of each move in the market's chance of no IPO before 2028 carries into the chance of a 1.8T+ close. DataSnack's author expected 0.2 in log-odds; the data say 0.183 in log-odds ± 0.12, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) · 1.8T+: 11% on 10 Nov 2026
- In which month will Anthropic IPO? · No IPO before 2028: 1% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 47%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 41%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 32%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 33%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 26%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 15%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 10% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 11%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:c04874dedad6 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 12:29 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.