Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
DataSnack's model puts this at 68% seven days from now (7 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 68%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Democrats are priced as a party ahead of any candidate; a wave is not a nominee
The party-level number shows how far the midterm wave moved views before any nominee emerged. The model's case rests on the number holding near 67% in seven days, with its 1.4-point daily miss matching the no-change baseline.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 68% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 68%
- The market closes: 8 Nov 2028
- How it resolves: The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.4 points against 1.4 points for standing still; closer on 26 of 60 days
- Fitted on 362 days of history
How the model works
The market's own chance is the base, and it moves a little with the strongest ranked market input, the Ocasio-Cortez chance in a sister market. The election is two years away and scheduled, so the model assumes the number mostly stays where it is.
- About -0.0758 in log-odds of each move in Ocasio-Cortez's chance of winning shows up in the Democratic party chance a week later. DataSnack's author expected -0.09 in log-odds; the data say -0.0758 in log-odds ± 0.023. A rough rule.
Sources
- Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? · Democratic: 68% on 11 Nov 2026
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 10% on 11 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 67%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 68%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 68%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 68%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 68%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 68%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 68% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 68%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:c0c4609da825.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:c0c4609da825 · Updated 7 Nov 2026 06:06 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.