Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
DataSnack's model puts this at 94% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 95%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A hawkish hold made a December hike the default; only soft data undoes it
A December hike sets the path for rate-sensitive assets after the September hike and the 10-2 hold in October. The model's case rests on the chance decaying as the window shrinks; it scored 4.7 points a day against 5.0 for no change.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 95% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 94%
- The market closes: 10 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This marke…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 42 days: off by 4.7 points against 5.0 points for standing still; closer on 25 of 42 days
- Fitted on 48 days of history
How the model works
The chance of a December hike decays as the window to the meeting shrinks if nothing new arrives. The scan shows the market's own weekly moves tend to partly reverse, so the model adds a pull back on top of the decay.
- With no hike at the meeting in this window, the chance of a hike by December shrinks as the window shortens, at 0.35 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0.35, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- After the market's number moves over a week, about 0 in log-odds of that move reverses over the next week. DataSnack's author expected -0.4 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.79, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes: 95% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 63%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 66%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 73%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 73%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 73%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 91%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 94% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 95%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:c16d1f289bdd · Updated 10 Nov 2026 11:31 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.