Next Prime Minister of Spain?
DataSnack's model puts this at 93% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 93%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Feijóo's 90% rests on a snap election that Spain's rules require him to win
The number matters because only a Congress vote of confidence and a formal swearing-in count, so caretaker leaders do not. The model's case rests on stability: 1.3 points a day of error, level with assuming no change.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 93% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 93%
- The market closes: 30 Nov 2026
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.3 points against 1.3 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
- Fitted on 130 days of history
How the model works
The market's number stays near where it is, with a small nudge when news on Spain's snap election and train crash picks up. The scan found a modest link between coverage and the next week's move.
- Each extra daily story on Spain's snap election and train crash moves Feijóo's log-odds by about 0 in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.027 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.066. A rough rule.
Sources
- Stories per day on Spain's snap election and train crash: 0 stories/day on 10 Nov 2026
- Next Prime Minister of Spain? · Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 93% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 90%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 91%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 88%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 90%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 93%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 93%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 93% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 93%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:c2d7489ed83f · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:40 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.