# Fed Decision in January? DataSnack's model puts this at 49% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 49%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. ## DataSnack's read **A split Fed makes January a test of whether tightening has ended** January's number shows whether the market thinks tightening ends after December. The model's case rests on a hold chance staying near 74% and on news pointing to a hold; October CPI, due 2026-11-10, is the test. ## The numbers - The market's number (Polymarket) now: 49% ([the market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502)) - DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 49% - The market closes: 28 Jan 2027 - How it resolves: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.… - Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. - Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.8 points against 4.1 points for standing still; closer on 28 of 60 days - Fitted on 94 days of history ## How the model works The January decision is scheduled, so the chance of no change stays near its current level. It moves with the cut-side chance, with news reading that points to a hold or soft data, and with the volume of hold-with-dissent stories. - When the cut chance moves, the chance of no change moves by about 0 in log-odds in log-odds per unit. DataSnack's author expected -0.12 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.029. A rough rule. - When stories lean toward a hold or soft data, the chance of no change rises by about 0.25 in log-odds in log-odds per point of reading. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data. - When more stories report a Fed hold with dissent, the chance of no change moves by about 0 in log-odds in log-odds per story a day. DataSnack's author expected 0.015 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.011. A rough rule. ## Sources - Fed Decision in January? · No change: 49% on 10 Nov 2026 - Fed decision in Jan 2027? · Cut 25bps: 1% on 10 Nov 2026 - Reading: stories point to a Fed hold or soft data: 0.375 score on 9 Nov 2026 - Fed hold with dissent stories: 0 stories/day on 10 Nov 2026 ## The record It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. Waiting for their day: - Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 75% - Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 73% - Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 73% - Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 73% - Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 77% - Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 72% ## Questions **What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 49% seven days from now. **What is the market's number?** The market's number (Polymarket) is 49%. **How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept. **How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy. **Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx. --- Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:c5dd6e57dfe9 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 13:45 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.