SpaceX Starship 15th launch?
DataSnack's model puts this at 96% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 96%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
The FAA licence, not the hardware, now sets Starship Flight 15's launch date
Flight 15 matters because SpaceX is winding down Falcon 9 and needs Starship for its 2027 cadence. The model's case rests on a shrinking window, which puts the chance at 87% in seven days, against 90% for a launch before Dec 11 now.}</br>
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 96% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 96%
- The market closes: 27 Nov 2026
- How it resolves: If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Nov 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 30 days: off by 1.7 points against 2.1 points for standing still; closer on 18 of 30 days
- Fitted on 36 days of history
How the model works
Hardware has cleared static fire and the target is mid-November, so the main risk is regulatory timing. The chance of a launch by the close drifts with the shrinking window. The expected 2026 launch count adds a small read on cadence.
- With no launch this week, the chance of a launch by the close shrinks as the window shortens, at 0.17 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0.17, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.
- Each launch added to the market's expected 2026 SpaceX count moves the chance by 0.0804 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.08 in log-odds; the data say 0.0804 in log-odds ± 0.062, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- SpaceX Starship 15th launch? · Before Dec 11, 2026: 96% on 11 Nov 2026
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (the market's number): 140 number on 11 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 87%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 91%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 93%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 11 Nov 2026 for 18 Nov 2026: 96%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 96% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 96%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:c61d269b1235.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:c61d269b1235 · Updated 8 Nov 2026 09:18 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.