# SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

DataSnack's model puts this at 96% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 96%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**The FAA licence, not the hardware, now sets Starship Flight 15's launch date**

Flight 15 matters because SpaceX is winding down Falcon 9 and needs Starship for its 2027 cadence. The model's case rests on a shrinking window, which puts the chance at 87% in seven days, against 90% for a launch before Dec 11 now.}</br>

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 96% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexstarship))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 96%
- The market closes: 27 Nov 2026
- How it resolves: If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Nov 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 30 days: off by 1.7 points against 2.1 points for standing still; closer on 18 of 30 days
- Fitted on 36 days of history

## How the model works

Hardware has cleared static fire and the target is mid-November, so the main risk is regulatory timing. The chance of a launch by the close drifts with the shrinking window. The expected 2026 launch count adds a small read on cadence.

- With no launch this week, the chance of a launch by the close shrinks as the window shortens, at 0.17 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0.17, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.
- Each launch added to the market's expected 2026 SpaceX count moves the chance by 0.0804 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.08 in log-odds; the data say 0.0804 in log-odds ± 0.062, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

## Sources

- SpaceX Starship 15th launch? · Before Dec 11, 2026: 96% on 11 Nov 2026
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (the market's number): 140 number on 11 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 87%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 91%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 93%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 11 Nov 2026 for 18 Nov 2026: 96%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 96% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 96%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

**Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet?** Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:c61d269b1235.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:c61d269b1235 · Updated 8 Nov 2026 09:18 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.