Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
DataSnack's model puts this at 11% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 11%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Closed flagships keep raising the bar, leaving challengers short of a top rank
The market puts Meta and OpenAI at 11% each, so no lab is seen as a clear leader. The model's case rests on Meta's chance partly reversing last week's move, giving 10% in seven days; the next closed release would test it.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 11% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 11%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: If OpenAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.5 points against 3.8 points for standing still; closer on 38 of 60 days
- Fitted on 294 days of history
How the model works
Meta's chance tends to partly reverse its last week's move, so the model reads the market's own seven-day change with a negative coefficient. Nothing in the ranked inputs gives a direct reason to expect a Meta model to take #1 soon.
- About -0.353 in log-odds of last week's move in the market's chance for Meta reverses over the next week. DataSnack's author expected -0.4 in log-odds; the data say -0.353 in log-odds ± 0.11. A rough rule.
Sources
- Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? · Meta: 11% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 7%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 7%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 7%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 10%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 9%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 11%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 11% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 11%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:c61f30d38024 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 07:02 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.