OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 54% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 56%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
OpenAI's partial proofs raise the stakes faster than they close the prize gap
A qualifying claim would test whether AI labs can clear the Clay Institute's bar, not just publish results. The model's case rests on window decay with a 55% chance in seven days, against 56% now, with attention adding almost nothing.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 56% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 54%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2028
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A q…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 46 days: off by 7.7 points against 7.9 points for standing still; closer on 27 of 46 days
- Fitted on 51 days of history
How the model works
With no new announcement, the chance of a qualifying OpenAI claim by the end of 2027 decays as the window shortens. Attention to OpenAI, which rises around claims such as the partial Yang-Mills result, nudges it up or down on top of that decay.
- With no new announcement this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at about 2 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 0.8; the data say 2, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- Each rise in OpenAI attention over two weeks moves the log-odds by about 0 in log-odds per daily page view. DataSnack's author expected 3e-05 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 9.3e-05, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? · December 31, 2027: 56% on 10 Nov 2026
- Wikipedia page views: OpenAI: 7110 views/day on 9 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 55%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 55%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 55%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 54%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 54%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 54%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 54% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 56%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:c76a96b9e8d0 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:57 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.