GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 93% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 98%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Astra timing hangs on OpenAI's own safety bar, and the year-end window is wide
A self-set safety gate, not engineering readiness, decides when the top tier ships, and cheaper tiers make delay less costly. The model's case rests on 6.2 leaks and a news score, with 95% in seven days versus 99% now.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 98% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 93%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 44 days: off by 5.0 points against 5.9 points for standing still; closer on 27 of 44 days
- Fitted on 59 days of history
How the model works
The market asks whether any Astra model numbered 6.1 or higher ships by December 31. The 6.1 model was shelved, but a 6.2 Astra is leaked and Altman says the next GPT is coming soon. The chance is near 99%, so the model lets it decay as the window shrinks, adds a small pullback after recent moves, and reads a daily news score on whether a 6.2 launch looks imminent.
- With no release this week, the chance of a release by December 31 shrinks with the shorter window at 0 of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 0; the data say 0, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- Over the past two weeks, each move in the market's chance is followed by a pullback of about -0.344 in log-odds of it over the next week. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- When news reads as an Astra 6.2 launch looking imminent, the market's chance rises by about 2.92 in log-odds in log-odds per point of score over the week. DataSnack's author expected 0.5 in log-odds; the data say 2.92 in log-odds ± 2.4, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? · December 31: 98% on 10 Nov 2026
- News reading: Astra 6.2 launch looks imminent from trackers and leaks: 0.184 score on 9 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 97%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 95%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 95%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 95%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 93% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 98%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:cdb6c0d84d7b · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:16 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.