Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 70% seven days from now (7 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 70%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A ceasefire hinges on who sets the sequence, not on who wants peace
The gap between definitions shows how far a durable halt is from a partial pause. The model's case rests on time decay and crude oil, and it missed by 5.5 points on 2026-10-05 when talks news moved the number.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 70% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 70%
- The market closes: 1 Jul 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspe…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 52 days: off by 1.7 points against 1.7 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 52 days
- Fitted on 58 days of history
How the model works
The chance of a ceasefire by the end date erodes as time runs out with no deal, after which a small adjustment follows the week's move in crude oil, which the scan found to be the strongest tracker of the market.
- With no deal this week, the chance of a ceasefire by the date decays at 0 of a constant-hazard pace as the window shortens. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- Each $1 weekly rise in crude shifts the ceasefire chance by about 0 in log-odds in log-odds, a link the data show but that may reflect a shared driver. DataSnack's author expected 0.0067 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± under 0.01, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? · December 31, 2027: 70% on 11 Nov 2026
- WTI crude oil spot, Cushing (EIA): $99.64/bbl on 3 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 70%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 69%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 70%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 70%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 69%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 70%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 70% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 70%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:cfd3e439e1bf.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:cfd3e439e1bf · Updated 7 Nov 2026 04:44 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.