# Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

DataSnack's model puts this at 96% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 96%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**A hike-and-pause Fed path now hinges on oil and October CPI, not the committee**

The Fed's stepwise path sets the rate backdrop for firms and investors into 2027. The model's case rests on the March 2027 hike chance repricing the Fed path; it is off by 9.4 points a day against 10.4 for no change.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 96% ([the market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-sepdec))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 96%
- The market closes: 9 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the ta…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 9.4 points against 10.4 points for standing still; closer on 31 of 60 days
- Fitted on 62 days of history

## How the model works

The market's Hike–Pause–Hike chance is anchored at its latest level. It moves with the 10-year yield, then with the repricing of the later Fed-path market, which reads the same hike expectations.

- Each 1 point rise in the 10-year yield over three days moves the chance by 0 in log-odds in log-odds over the next week. DataSnack's author expected 4.14 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.76, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- When the March 2027 hike chance rises over a week, the chance here moves by 0.541 in log-odds in log-odds as the Fed path reprices. DataSnack's author expected 0.57 in log-odds; the data say 0.541 in log-odds ± 0.25, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

## Sources

- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) · Hike–Pause–Hike: 96% on 10 Nov 2026
- 10-year Treasury yield (FRED): 4.86% on 6 Nov 2026
- Fed decision in Mar 2027? · Hike 25bps: 54% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 64%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 64%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 70%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 70%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 71%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 88%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 96% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Polymarket) is 96%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:d31140b1bfc7 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 17:08 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.