CPI YoY in December
DataSnack's model puts this at 97% seven days from now (9 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 97%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A 97% chance on December CPI above 3.1% leaves the upper rungs to decide
The market puts December CPI above 3.1% at 97% and above 3.5% at 83%, so the Fed's read hinges on the upper rungs. The model's case rests on the number staying put, matching a no-change guess at 2.1 points a day over 43 days.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 97% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 97%
- The market closes: 13 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.1% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 43 days: off by 2.1 points against 2.1 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 43 days
- Fitted on 47 days of history
How the model works
The market's chance that December CPI inflation tops 3.1% is near 97%, so it mostly stays put. Its own recent moves tend to partly reverse.
- A week's move in the market's own chance is followed by 0 in log-odds of that move in log-odds the next week. DataSnack's author expected -0.577 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.77, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- CPI YoY in December · Above 3.1%: 97% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 97%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 97%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 97%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 97%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 97% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 97%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:d64ee86711bd.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:d64ee86711bd · Updated 9 Nov 2026 07:47 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.