S&P close price end of 2026?
DataSnack's model puts this at 20% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 23%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Rates and AI policy, not seasonality, will decide where the S&P 500 ends 2026
The year-end close sets the read on whether rates and AI policy cap equities, and the market puts the 7,800 to 7,999.99 range at 27%. The model's case rests on the 7,600 to 7,799.99 range's chance reversing part of its recent move.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 23% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 20%
- The market closes: 31 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 7800-7999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 2.1 points against 2.2 points for standing still; closer on 31 of 60 days
- Fitted on 314 days of history
How the model works
The market's chance for the 7,600 to 7,799.99 range tends to mean-revert: a rise over the past two weeks was followed by a partial pullback in the next week. The index sits at 7,689, inside the range, so the model keeps the current chance and applies this scan-fitted reversal.
- After the range's chance has moved, about -0.324 in log-odds of that move in log-odds reverses over the following week. DataSnack's author expected -0.3 in log-odds; the data say -0.324 in log-odds ± 0.1. A rough rule.
Sources
- S&P close price end of 2026? · 7,600 to 7,799.99: 23% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 18%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 16%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 17%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 17%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 17%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 20%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 20% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 23%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:d9b3fb1abc62 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:45 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.