Venezuela leader end of 2026?

DataSnack's model puts this at 93% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 93%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Maduro's 93% rests on a power structure that has not yet been tested

A 93% chance for Maduro is a statement about who controls the state, and Machado's 2026-10-25 return puts that to the test. The model's case rests on no scheduled event this week, giving 92% in seven days, though it was blind to news.}

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 93% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 93%
• The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
• How it resolves: This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 7.4 points against 7.4 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
• Fitted on 279 days of history

How the model works

With no scheduled event this week, the market's chance that Maduro still leads at year end mostly stands still. The strongest ranked input, the 10-year yield, adds a small data-fitted adjustment to the log-odds.

• Each one-point rise in the 10-year yield over a week moves the market's log-odds by 0 in log-odds, a weak statistical link rather than a causal one. DataSnack's author expected -0.3 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.37. A rough rule.

Sources

• 10-year Treasury yield (FRED): 4.86% on 6 Nov 2026
• Venezuela leader end of 2026? · Nicolás Maduro: 93% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 92%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 91%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 92%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 94%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 94%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 93%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 93% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 93%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:ddcb241bf488 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:00 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.