# When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

DataSnack's model puts this at 99% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 99%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Anthropic's listing is settled; investors now hold the leverage on price**

The market puts an announcement before Apr 1, 2027 at 98%, so the contest is valuation and schedule, a test of AI funding in a weak Nasdaq. The model's case rests on the market's own number holding near 89%.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 99% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipoanthropic))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 99%
- The market closes: 1 Apr 2027
- How it resolves: If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.4 points against 3.4 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
- Fitted on 206 days of history

## How the model works

Anthropic has already filed its S-1 publicly and is aiming for a listing in mid-November. The market is at 89% for an announcement before April, so the main driver is the shrinking window, modeled as a hazard decay from the market's own number.

- With no announcement this week, the chance of an announcement by the close decays at about 0 of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.

## Sources

- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? · Before Apr 1, 2027: 99% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 89%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 61%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 93%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 94%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 93%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 98%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 99% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 99%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:e12e9fb0865e · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:20 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.