Argentina Presidential Election Winner

DataSnack's model puts this at 45% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 45%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Milei leads, but Argentina's 2027 race is a referendum on his economy

Argentina's presidency sets the course of the country's economic overhaul, so the 44% for Milei matters well beyond this market. The model's case rests on a small reversal of the last day's move, which gives 45% in seven days.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 45% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 45%
• The market closes: 25 Oct 2027
• How it resolves: A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources,…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 2.2 points against 2.2 points for standing still; closer on 23 of 60 days
• Fitted on 185 days of history

How the model works

Milei's chance is the market's number. The scan shows daily moves tend to partly reverse over the next week, so the model keeps today's chance and adds a small pull back from the last day's move. The election is almost a year away, so nothing decays or settles this week.

• About -0.331 in log-odds of the last day's move in Milei's chance carries into next week, so a negative value means part of it reverses. DataSnack's author expected -0.3 in log-odds; the data say -0.331 in log-odds ± 0.19. A rough rule.

Sources

• Argentina Presidential Election Winner · Javier Milei: 45% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 45%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 45%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 45%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 45%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 45%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 45%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 45% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 45%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:e27a4717a840 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.