Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

DataSnack's model puts this at 33% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 33%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Google holds the top scores, but the race to 1550 is set by who ships next

The first 1550 shows which lab can keep raising the bar as rivals ship, with Gemini at 37% and Claude at 19%. The model's case rests on Gemini staying near 35% in seven days, with a link to OpenAI's chance of a top-ranked model.

The numbers

• The market's number (Kalshi) now: 33% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 33%
• The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
• How it resolves: If a model by Google is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 5.4 points against 5.4 points for standing still; closer on 34 of 60 days
• Fitted on 244 days of history

How the model works

Gemini's chance of being first to 1550 stays where it is unless rivals' chances move. When OpenAI's chance of a top-ranked model rose in the past week, the scan found Gemini's chance tended to fall over the next week.

• Each rise of 0.1 in OpenAI's chance of a top-ranked model has been followed by a move in Gemini's chance of -0.033 in log-odds in log-odds per unit, as the rivals compete for the first 1550. DataSnack's author expected -0.4 in log-odds; the data say -0.033 in log-odds ± 0.17. A rough rule.

Sources

• Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? · Gemini: 33% on 10 Nov 2026
• Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? · OpenAI: 12% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 35%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 35%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 37%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 36%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 38%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 35%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 33% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 33%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:e37de22f8048 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 07:02 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.