# Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

DataSnack's model puts this at 33% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 33%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Google holds the top scores, but the race to 1550 is set by who ships next**

The first 1550 shows which lab can keep raising the bar as rivals ship, with Gemini at 37% and Claude at 19%. The model's case rests on Gemini staying near 35% in seven days, with a link to OpenAI's chance of a top-ranked model.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 33% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmodelhigh))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 33%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: If a model by Google is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 5.4 points against 5.4 points for standing still; closer on 34 of 60 days
- Fitted on 244 days of history

## How the model works

Gemini's chance of being first to 1550 stays where it is unless rivals' chances move. When OpenAI's chance of a top-ranked model rose in the past week, the scan found Gemini's chance tended to fall over the next week.

- Each rise of 0.1 in OpenAI's chance of a top-ranked model has been followed by a move in Gemini's chance of -0.033 in log-odds in log-odds per unit, as the rivals compete for the first 1550. DataSnack's author expected -0.4 in log-odds; the data say -0.033 in log-odds ± 0.17. A rough rule.

## Sources

- Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? · Gemini: 33% on 10 Nov 2026
- Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? · OpenAI: 12% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 35%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 35%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 37%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 36%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 38%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 35%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 33% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 33%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:e37de22f8048 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 07:02 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.