AFC Asian Cup 2027 Winner

DataSnack's model puts this at 2% seven days from now; the market's number (Polymarket) is 4%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

The Asian Cup delay turned a football market into a calendar test

The shift tests Saudi Arabia's hosting model ahead of the 2034 World Cup and shows how rules can outweigh form. The model's case rests on Indonesia near the floor at 4% and a daily jump that tends to partly reverse, giving 2%.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 4% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 2%
• The market closes: 6 Feb 2027
• How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 AFC Asian Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 AFC Asian Cup per the rules of the AFC (e.g., they are eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2027 AFC Asian Cup is cancelled, postponed after February 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the AFC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 51 days: off by 3.7 points against 3.8 points for standing still; closer on 16 of 51 days
• Fitted on 52 days of history

How the model works

After the postponement, the market's chance for Indonesia sits near the floor and tends to partly reverse its latest daily jump, so it stays near where it is.

• About -0.276 in log-odds of the latest day's move in the market's own chance carries into next week, and a negative value means it partly reverses. DataSnack's author expected -0.4 in log-odds; the data say -0.276 in log-odds ± 0.45, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Sources

• AFC Asian Cup 2027 Winner · Indonesia: 4% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 2%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 2% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 4%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:e870ea52dd19 · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.