IPOs before 2027?

DataSnack's model puts this at 97% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 97%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

One mega-listing carries the 2026 IPO window, and its price is the signal

A single listing carries a record IPO year, and its reception sets the backdrop for issuers that slipped to 2027. The model's case rests on window decay (72% in seven days), though it has not read the S-1 or the mid-November target.}

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 97% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 97%
• The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
• How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 7.0 points against 7.0 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
• Fitted on 332 days of history

How the model works

The prospectus is filed and a roadshow is aimed at a debut before Thanksgiving, so the by-date chance mostly shrinks with the window. The decay is the base. A weak ranked input, Gulf Coast jet fuel, adds a small fitted adjustment.

• With no listing this week, the chance of a listing by year-end shrinks with the window at 0 of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.
• Each $1/gal rise in Gulf Coast jet fuel over a week moves the chance by 0 in log-odds in log-odds a week later, a loose market-stress link. DataSnack's author expected -0.28 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.42. A rough rule.

Sources

• IPOs before 2027? · Anthropic: 97% on 10 Nov 2026
• Jet fuel spot, US Gulf Coast (EIA): $4.20/gal on 3 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 77%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 71%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 88%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 88%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 88%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 88%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 97% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 97%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:f049af834d19 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 17:14 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.