Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
DataSnack's model puts this at 24% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 24%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Israel's airspace odds hinge on Lebanon escalation, not the calendar
A closure order would signal a regional escalation that reaches aviation, insurance and shipping decisions. The model's case rests on reporting of a possible Beirut strike lifting the odds, with 27% in seven days.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 24% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 24%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closur…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 40 days: off by 2.9 points against 3.2 points for standing still; closer on 20 of 40 days
- Fitted on 45 days of history
How the model works
With no closure this week, the chance of closure by the end of December decays as the window shortens. A rise in reporting that Israel will strike Beirut nudges the odds up.
- With no closure this week, the chance shrinks as the window shortens, at 0 of the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- Each point of rise in the Beirut strike reading over 3 days moves the closure odds by 0.287 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.25 in log-odds; the data say 0.287 in log-odds ± 0.29, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) · December 31: 24% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: Israel warns or plans to strike Beirut: 0.0333 score on 9 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 27%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 29%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 34%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 37%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 30%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 22%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 24% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 24%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:f2378a5a9329 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:50 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.