Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
DataSnack's model puts this at 31% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 27%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Exits are defensive; Hegseth is the test of how far Trump will concede
Whether Trump yields on Hegseth shows how far he will concede before oversight begins. The model's case rests on last week's move partly reversing, putting Hegseth at 44% in seven days against 36% now.}
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 27% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 31%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.5 points against 3.7 points for standing still; closer on 33 of 60 days
- Fitted on 331 days of history
How the model works
Start from where the market stands today and let the last week's move partly reverse, as the scan measured over 326 days. Nothing else is added, so with no recent move the number stays where it is.
- A week's move in the market tends to partly reverse over the next week, at -0.337 in log-odds of the move. DataSnack's author expected -0.3 in log-odds; the data say -0.337 in log-odds ± 0.11. A rough rule.
Sources
- Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? · Pete Hegseth: 27% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 43%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 40%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 34%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 38%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 42%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 32%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 31% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 27%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:f5bf7f7dcc27 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 11:47 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.