Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
DataSnack's model puts this at 6% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 9%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Hormuz reopens on a US-Iran political bargain, and the calendar works against it
A reopening would signal a US-Iran settlement and relief for oil and shipping costs. The model's case rests on time decay with 51 days left and no deal, plus small tilts from pump gasoline and WTI crude, at 7%.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 9% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 6%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been pub…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 2.0 points against 2.9 points for standing still; closer on 42 of 60 days
- Fitted on 175 days of history
How the model works
Time decay: with 51 days left and no deal, the chance of a by-date event slips as the window shrinks. Pump gasoline and WTI crude, both ranked by the scan, add a tilt beyond that decay.
- With no breakthrough this week, the chance shrinks as the window shrinks, at about 2 of the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 2. Fits past data roughly.
- Each $1/gal rise in pump gasoline over two weeks moves the odds by about 0.0921 in log-odds, as the market reads pump prices as a sign of Hormuz stress or relief. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- Each $1/bbl rise in WTI crude over two weeks moves the odds by about 0.008 in log-odds, as crude carries the market's read of Hormuz supply stress. DataSnack's author expected 0.008 in log-odds; the data say 0.008 in log-odds ± 0.0066. A rough rule.
Sources
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes: 9% on 10 Nov 2026
- US regular gasoline, retail (EIA): $4.15/gal on 2 Nov 2026
- WTI crude oil, Cushing (FRED): $99.64/bbl on 3 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 8%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 7%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 7%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 6%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 6%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 7%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 6% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 9%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:f61cdaf09f86 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:10 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.