Fed rate cut before 2027?
DataSnack's model puts this at 1% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 2%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A Fed leaning toward hikes leaves a cut with almost no path before year-end
A cut is priced at 2% because the Fed hiked in September, held 10-2 in October with two votes for more, and inflation is 3.7%. The model's case rests on the shrinking window, with the hawkish-reading link adding about nothing.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 2% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 1%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.3 points against 1.5 points for standing still; closer on 31 of 60 days
- Fitted on 250 days of history
How the model works
The Fed held at 3.75-4% after a September hike, and hot inflation and dissents point toward another hike rather than a cut. With about 8 weeks left and no cut in sight, the chance of a cut decays as the window shrinks. The fitted reading of hawkish Fed stories then shifts it on what the market did beyond that decay.
- With no cut this week, the chance of a cut before year-end shrinks at about 2 of a constant-hazard pace as the window closes. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 2. Fits past data roughly.
- Each rise in the reading that the Fed is leaning toward a hike moves the cut chance by about 0 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected -0.585 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.72. A rough rule.
Sources
- Fed rate cut before 2027? · Yes: 2% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: Fed leaning toward a December hike: 0.36 score on 9 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 1%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 1% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 2%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:f689b1213784 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.