# When will Apple release the iPhone 18?

DataSnack's model puts this at 81% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 81%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Apple's split lineup makes spring a second launch season, with April 1 the line**

A spring base iPhone shifts Apple's revenue calendar and suppliers' build schedules. The model's case rests on the 4-point one-day rise partly reversing, leaving the 84% chance of release before April 2027 at 83% in seven days.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 81% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxiphonerelease))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 81%
- The market closes: 1 Apr 2027
- How it resolves: If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 2.8 points against 2.8 points for standing still; closer on 18 of 60 days
- Fitted on 73 days of history

## How the model works

The base iPhone 18 is expected in spring 2027, so the chance of release by April 1 drifts with the shrinking window to the cutoff. The market's one-day moves have tended to partly reverse over the following week.

- With no launch news this week, the chance of a release by April 1 grows at 0 of the pace of a constant hazard as the window shrinks. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- A one-day move in the market tends to partly reverse over the next week, with about -0.456 in log-odds of it given back. DataSnack's author expected -0.465 in log-odds; the data say -0.456 in log-odds ± 0.13, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.

## Sources

- When will Apple release the iPhone 18? · Before April 2027: 81% on 12 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 83%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 84%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 85%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 83%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 85%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 85%
- Made 11 Nov 2026 for 18 Nov 2026: 84%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 81% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 81%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

**Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet?** Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:f7949fe72bf8.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:f7949fe72bf8 · Updated 8 Nov 2026 09:34 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.