Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
DataSnack's model puts this at 80% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 80%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Anthropic's IPO range resets the AI valuation question below the $1.5T line
The listing tests whether public investors still pay for AI growth against $895 billion of committed spending. The model's case rests on the market's 81% chance holding near 80%, though it only matched standing still over 60 days.}
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 80% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 80%
- The market closes: 5 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.5 points against 3.5 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
- Fitted on 166 days of history
How the model works
With no news, the chance of hitting $1.5T by the date drifts along the by_date decay. Reports of investors pushing the IPO price toward $1.5-1.6T are added on top, read through the news reading of valuation cuts.
- With no new event, the chance of hitting $1.5T by the date shifts to about 0 of the pace a constant hazard would imply as the window shrinks. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.
- Each full point of rise in the reading that the IPO valuation is being cut moves the chance by about 0 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.5 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 2. A rough rule.
Sources
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? · ↑$1.5T: 80% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: stories say the Anthropic IPO valuation is being cut: 0.75 score on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 83%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 83%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 75%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 74%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 78%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 85%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 80% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 80%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:f8b0e5b9e05b · Updated 10 Nov 2026 11:04 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.