Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 2% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 3%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A paired-blockade stalemate makes an island seizure a fading tail risk
Kharg Island sits at the center of oil, shipping and Gulf stability, yet the market puts a loss of Iranian control at 4%. The model's case rests on the window closing, with the pump price a minor nudge; it says 2% in seven days.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 3% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 2%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announce…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.3 points against 1.3 points for standing still; closer on 22 of 60 days
- Fitted on 96 days of history
How the model works
The chance of an island seizure by a fixed date decays as the window shortens, and a rising pump price, a sign of war stress in oil, nudges it up a week later.
- With no seizure this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 2 times the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 2; the data say 2. Fits past data roughly.
- When the pump price of gasoline rises, the chance tends to move up a week later, by about 0.144 in log-odds in log-odds per dollar of the rise. DataSnack's author expected 0.05 in log-odds; the data say 0.144 in log-odds ± 0.38. A rough rule.
Sources
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? · Yes: 3% on 10 Nov 2026
- US regular gasoline, retail (FRED): $4.15/gal on 2 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 4%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 4%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 3%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 3%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 3%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 2%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 2% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 3%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:f8d0822f1879 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:40 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.