Trump out as President before 2027?
DataSnack's model puts this at 2% seven days from now (6 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 2%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A shrinking calendar, not new risk, is holding this number near the floor
The chance of a presidential exit reads as a gauge of institutional stability and residual political tail risk. The model's case rests on a shrinking window and partial reversal of recent swings, leaving 4% in seven days.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 2% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 2%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 0.5 points against 0.5 points for standing still; closer on 21 of 60 days
- Fitted on 347 days of history
How the model works
The market's chance of Trump leaving office by year-end decays as the window shortens with no event. Recent swings have tended to partly reverse, so a second link adds that pull back on top of the decay.
- With no event this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 0 times the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.
- Past two weeks' moves in the market partly reverse, by -0.172 in log-odds of the move. DataSnack's author expected -0.15 in log-odds; the data say -0.172 in log-odds ± 0.092. A rough rule.
Sources
- Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes: 2% on 11 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 4%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 4%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 3%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 3%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 3%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 2% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 2%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:fa5f38a0d5e4.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:fa5f38a0d5e4 · Updated 6 Nov 2026 03:46 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.