Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
DataSnack's model puts this at 8% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 9%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
The blockade lets Washington hold the line without escalating to invasion
The 8% chance matters because the blockade, not invasion, sets Hormuz shipping and any deal. The model's case rests on a 12% reading in seven days, though its replay missed by 1.7 points a day, no better than no change.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 9% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 8%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.7 points against 1.7 points for standing still; closer on 23 of 60 days
- Fitted on 360 days of history
How the model works
The chance of an invasion before year end shrinks as the window closes, absent a trigger. The reading on a blockade-lift deal adjusts it, since deal talk has tended to lower the odds a week later.
- With no invasion this week, the chance shrinks at about 0 of the pace of a constant hazard as the window to year end shortens. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.
- Each point rise in the reading that the US will lift the blockade moves the log-odds by about -0.191 in log-odds, as the scan found the market tended to fall after such rises. DataSnack's author expected -0.2 in log-odds; the data say -0.191 in log-odds ± 0.14. A rough rule.
Sources
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes: 9% on 10 Nov 2026
- US agrees to lift Iran blockade: 0.0867 score on 9 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 12%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 12%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 10%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 10%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 11%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 8%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 8% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 9%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:fdf0d0a451f9 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:20 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.