# What is a fair price for alien-disclosure insurance?

A policy paying $10,000 if the US confirms aliens exist before 20 January 2029 has a fair price of $1,600 at the market's number today, and $1,600 at DataSnack's number for seven days from now.

At the prediction market's chance, with nothing added for an insurer's costs or margin.

- Now: $1,600
- In seven days: $1,600

## The working

The expected payout of a policy that pays a fixed sum if the US government confirms that aliens exist before 20 January 2029, taking the chance at the prediction market's number.

| Step | Expression | Now | In seven days |
| - | - | - | - |
| Fair price of the policy | `payout * chance` | $1,600 | $1,600 |

Each name in an expression is an input below or an earlier step.

## What this runs on

### DataSnack's models

- `chance`: [US alien confirmation: decay plus mean reversion](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:b0fc2b4362e3), 16% now (2026-11-14), 16% in seven days; graded 1 times since 2026-11-05

### Your assumptions

- `payout`: The policy pays, $10,000 (change it on the page)

Every model here is graded in public. Download the workbook and rebuild it.

## What this cannot tell you

The market's number is a price, not a measured probability, and no insurer sells this policy.

## The record

The first answer is graded seven days after it is made.

Data: [CSV](https://datasnack.ai/feed/q/alien-disclosure-insurance.csv) · [JSON](https://datasnack.ai/feed/q/alien-disclosure-insurance.json) · [Workbook (Excel)](https://datasnack.ai/feed/q/alien-disclosure-insurance.xlsx)

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/q/alien-disclosure-insurance · Updated 13 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.